Tuesday, February 1, 2011

Legacy


I am an “I told you so” and my track record has been validated (The audacity of denying failure).

I believe, your legacy will be your failure to fix the economic disaster created by G. W. Bush. Your government has set an inflation fire that will burn like the fire in the late seventies and government was helpless to subdue. Geither has stated publicly that “governments have experience in dealing with inflation”. He maliciously omits the late seventies and the term stagflation. I have consistently said the two dangers are deflation and it’s counter-part stagflation. Your government fails to strike the balance.

It is clear that fiscal policy is to game Wall Street and devalue the dollar to generate as much inflation as possible, which diminishes the debt and deficit amounts. Instead of Tarp bailing out the mortgages underwater you are forcing hardship on everyday Americans who are foreclosing. You fudge the inflation for cost of living by removing food and gas from the measure of inflation. Your government truly provides socialism for the too big to failure banks and capitalism to the everyday American.

I feel your snickers as you read this. I am a little guy and resent your arrogance. I feel you are repressing these thoughts as the governments in Egypt and Tunisia. There will be a revolution, 144 character tweets at a time.

I told you so.

Monday, December 20, 2010

Followup to the audacity of denying failure

Dear David Plouffe

I am the author of “The audacity of denying failure.”

I’m encouraged by developments since you read it.
Bill Clinton became involved in fiscal matters.
The Treasury Department posted an email address.
There was a summit with business leaders.

I would appreciate if you went through my thoughts starting at

http://wmbrae.blogspot.com/2009_03_01_archive.html
I started politely, but now I am totally exasperated.

In the spirit of human survival, I appeal to you for a strategic reset.


I think you need good people.

Better vetting is needed to assure that the new arrivals can hit the
ground running. The only one who did well has Hilary Clinton. Obama
is the slowest when it comes to understand managing and getting things
done through people. Adequate attention must be paid on the decisions
for the replacements of Gates, Summers and Rouse. (I think Geithner
or Goolsbee should be replaced.) I think you need a Chief Operating
Officer for day to day business– Hilary Clinton or Nancy Pelosi.

I think you need a government soul.

My heroes are Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, Hilary Clinton, Eliot
Spitzer, Howard Dean, James Carville, Al Gore. Two of these are not
publicly digestible and two have a weakness for women. Obama has
distanced himself from the ideals of these people.
I like them because they care about main street, and they have scars
for their efforts. Young people and Latinos don’t know about them.
They are not a good political base but they make me feel good. I am
old (63).
I feel that Obama is just the high school girl who is the most popular
and doesn’t want to extend himself if it risks losing popularity.

I think you need to address the economy.

G.W. Bush scared people with the threat of terrorism. People are
genuinely concerned about the economy. Geithner and Bernake don’t
care about the value of the dollar. They treat it as if it was pixels
on a computer screen. In the 70’s my grocery bill increased each week
by $10. I wondered how it would all end. Geithner and Bernake are
taking us there. Geithner has jeopardized the value of houses. It
will soon be common knowledge that Government economic policy is
measured by a rising Dow Jones Index. The reality is that main street
has been deeply burned by the shams on Wall street. There is so
little financial security and such stupidity in the political process
when dealing with the economy.

Tuesday, November 16, 2010

The audacity of denying failure

Geithner has been a total failure.
The whole purpose of Tarp was to mitigate losses for the banks when forced to value the bundled mortgages sold in the $7.6 trillion market for Residential Mortgage Backed Securities. The Congressional Oversight Committee says that the entire banking system is at risk because this issue has not been dealt with.

Geithner has pressed on the gas pedal (gas = people’s money) with a heavy foot, oblivious of the amount of gas in the tank (the national debt). He has not fixed the engine (securitized mortgages in the banks) so we use more gas than we need to and we risk to have another breakdown. The cars’ owners took out insurance from AIG for engine troubles, and Geithner paid AIG to payoff the insurance policies without an engine change.

On March 8, 2009., I sent you the enclosed suggestion, I felt it was better than Geithner's plan. It turns out that step 1 was easy because all mortgages are filed with one clearing house bank. Tarp would be very convenient to mitigate the assessed losses.

It is my considered opinion that Michael Bloomberg or Mitt Romney would do a better job than you. I know that if you feel you cannot make a difference, you wouldn’t stay for the sake of staying ( a la G.W. Bush). I hope you realize that you are very close to the tipping point.
You don’t show any will to throw counter-punches.
You play the blame game, a sure sign of a loser.
You play the victim card, typical of blacks, inherited the economy and other guys don’t want to play.
You have let power go to your head
Your office forced Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack to fire Shirley Sherrod. A total abuse of power and display of cowardice not to own up to it.
You invite NBA players to play basketball on your birthday because of the power of your Office.
You appoint the chair of the failed Economic Recovery Advisory Board as chair of Council of Economic Advisers.
You are in an isolated bubble of group think, the very thing you said you would not do.
You promised hope and change. I think the greatest tipping point, for you to pack it in, is that you did not deliver on hope. There is less hopefulness now than when you began. You really shouldn’t have promised this.

With respect to change, I willing acknowledge the Healthcare change. I don’t concede much on financial reform. Emnual left it up to Geithner to get Congress to set up an emergency reserve fund. True to form, Geithner failed. Geithner did not listen to Volcker on tightening bank investment methods, so Volcker used his influence on Congress, to pass the Volcker rule. Volcker has no public office, Geithner is the Secretary of the Treasury and has full support of the President of the United States. You don’t understand the importance of gravitas. Maybe I should tell you, Geithner has no gravitas.

I don’t feel you have done anything for unemployed Americans in the past 4 weeks. Shame on you.
You are hapless and appear hopeless.

I told you so.

PS

You promised Guantanamo would be closed in one year, it wasn’t and we will be approaching two years.
You promised to cut waste in Government, you haven’t.
You promised to introduce immigration reform by your first year in office, you didn’t.
A failure in justice is providing KSM a fair trial. I don’t understand news reports suggesting that the White House is deciding the forum for KSM’s trial. The mere suggesting of meddling and delay is justice denied.

PPS

March 8, 2009 Proposal to address the securitized mortgage crisis.

The government consolidates all bundled securitized mortgages, uses a
task force of Audit firms to re-value them, then re-distributes the
actual mortgages back to eligible holders.
The banks will properly show mortgages in their long-term assets
instead of current assets when they held the securitized slices (An
improper accounting shift to enhance executive bonus's).
We will end up with a mortgage market true to capitalism.

Detailed explanation.

Securitized mortgages means mortgages were bundled then tranches of
the bundle were sold off. Every mortgage is local so this instrument
is invalid.

1)Collect all bundled mortgages.

2)Classify the Mortgages
Within each bundle is a list of mortgages.
All the mortgages must be placed on a master list.
This list must be sub-divided in the following order:
Region/city New England, Rust belt, New York, East coast,
Florida, Nevada etc
Interest rate Standard prime, escalating interest rates including subprime
Current market value divided by mortgage
Mortgagee income to mortgage amount -ability to repay

Within each region you will be able to determine three categories
Low, medium and high risk.

3)Calculate the write down.

4)Collect all holders of bundled mortgages

5)Pro-rate the write down according the portion of the bundled mortgage holding.

6)Classify holders
Banks allowed to issue Mortgages in US and those not allowed.

7)Re-distribute the gathered mortgages to the banks allowed to issue
mortgages in the US.
The US government only has jurisdiction over banks allowed to issue
mortgages in
the US. The other holders will get no mortgages, it's a risk they
took. If this is too severe offer silent partner relationships with
the banks with title.

The redistribution will have to depend on what the data looks like.
Redistribution must be as fair as possible so should be done before a
Judge (We want justice). Ideally regions would be distributed to a
regional bank but markets may have to be tranched among several banks
to fairly spread the risk

Monday, October 11, 2010

Last Person Standing

The Executive Branch acts as if it is above the law. I think it's wrong for Executive Branch participate in Congressional elections. Political activity by the Executive Branch should deal directly with the Executive Branch re-election. The same reasoning makes me question why the Executive Branch criticizes the Judicial Branch on it's decisions.The Executive branch should focus on the problems facing the nation, such as the Economy.

Now that we can see there is only one person left standing after a flurry of house cleaning, we know who is responsible - Valerie Jarrett.

Who else could kick out Summers, Axelrod, Gibbs et al?

Who else would appoint Austan Goolsbee?

Who would be so racially thin skinned to force Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack to fire Shirley Sherrod and never own up to it?

Who else would be against bringing Hilary Clinton into the White House?

Who else has an impaired provincial view to avoid problems such as securitized mortgages and too big to fail.

Please reconsider how the Cost of Living Allowance is calculated. Christina Romer understood my concern, Valerie Jarrett doesn't. At the 30,000 foot level, inflation is measured as a trend indicator, it is rising or falling. The indicator must be consistent. For the sake of consistency temporary fluctuations have to be dampened out. The items which create temporary swings are food and gas prices. The harm comes because food and gas are important for living. I have written often that the President doesn't know the price of a gallon of milk or loaf of bread. This varies by geographic region. Life on the ground shows the price of bread has quadrupled and the price of milk has tripled in the past 3 years but there is no inflation. Who is out of touch ... Valerie Jarrett.

I am nothing but an I told you so.

The problem du jour is faulty foreclosure procedures at the banks. February 2, 2010, I wrote "Geithner has pressed on the gas pedal (gas = people's money) with a heavy foot, oblivious of the amount of gas in the tank (the national debt). He has not fixed the engine (securitized mortgages in the banks) so we use more gas than we need to and we risk to have another breakdown." I got it right, Jarett still can't see it coming.

Saturday, September 18, 2010

Bush Redux

Nominating Austan Goolsbee is like G. W. Bush nominating Harriet Miers to the Supreme Court.
Keeping Geithner is like G. W. Bush keeping Rumsfeld.

You told America that the Economy is your number one priority.
Everything was put on hold for two months while you worked out an Afghanistan policy. This was followed up with a team effort combining your Office, Defense and State. There has been no equivalent approach for the Economy and a dissolution of the economic team.

You never listened to me but time has borne me out – I told you so.


Two Chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank (Greenspan and Bernake) have said
that “too big to fail” has to be stopped. Your government has done nothing.

January 8, 2010

From the outside, your economic structure is worse than the
anti-terrorist security structure. What is the benefit of the Economic
Recovery Advisory Board and the Council of Economic Advisors?

How about getting actionable advice out of the National Economic

Council? You are spending more money on advice than helping the
guy/gal on the street! With so many councils with so many opinions,
there is no accountability for the actual economic policy. It looks
like a no fault economic policy where you are left holding the bag.

December 13, 2009

The failure of teamwork by your economic sector has created a dismal
economy with dim prospects. I never fail to remind you how Geithner
fails you. In March 2009, I patiently waited for Geithner's solution
to the securitized mortgage crisis. I felt it was inadequate but
rather than pan it, I made an effort to provide an alternative. The
Congressional Oversight Panel’s year-end report concludes that “the
foreclosure crisis continues to grow,” and finds that “TARP’s
foreclosure mitigation programs have not yet achieved the scope,
scale, and permanence necessary to address the crisis.” Geithner
failed.

There is a real need for team wok in your Economic sector- amongst

themselves, with Congress and the electorate. They have failed at
teamwork. You have failed as coach, manager and owner. You need a game
plan, a set of plays to execute the plan and the bodies to execute the
plays.

November 9, 2009

If you want to salvage your Presidency I would create a true economic
recovery team. Bill Clinton, Alan Greenspan and James Baker. Each man
brings a great talent, Clinton the vision, Greenspan the specifics and
Baker the implementation). Sadly you bring nothing.

Monday, November 2, 2009

Empathy
Rahm Emnual, the noble statesman, picks his spots and fights the truly
worthy battles, the stimulus package and healthcare. His next
assignment should be to battle the national debt. Let him make
government more efficient, cut the waste and reign in uncontrolled
treasury excesses.

Your sense of government is troubling. There are 38 czars! You

required empathy in the Supreme Court nomination yet created a void of
empathy in the economic branch. Your economic teams operate with the
impunity of George Bush’s Defense Department invading Iraq. PBS makes
them out to be the Robert Rubin’s cabal.

I never fail to remind you how poorly Geithner is doing. He operates

like a czar, yet his sole supporter is you! He has no support in
Congress, among White House staff or the public. His plan to address
the credit crisis at the banks has not worked (I offered a timely
constructive alternative). The investment market place is not headed
to the sound foundations that you promised. A wage czar over the
private sector is an absurd sense of government. Turn your wage czar
on the government especially the military and the empire of czars.
You should be privately vetting candidates to replace Geithner

I think an empathetic White House would not ignore the plight, for

human dignity, of a person who is unemployed but is willing to work.
You are ignoring human suffering, the rising cost of the necessities
of life is not an arcane economic term “the cost of living” but the
cost of surviving! Like many successful people, you deny your past
when your mother was on food stamps. America is more than surviving,
it can afford to embrace human dignity.

You need an economic plan for main street.

Let’s do something to get American kids to exercise. In-line skating
and bicycling are great activities that can even save gas. So public
works for bike and skate lanes would be good. Ice skating is a great
activity and the rinks can be used as in-line skate rinks in summer so
build some ice rinks. This idea is so good even your daughters can get
excited about it.Basketball is also great, church and school gyms
should be modified to allow public access after school hours.

How do you finance the rinks and gyms? Partner them with Starbucks,

McDonalds, Burger King and Wendy’s. Rinks and gyms could be operated
by chains. You have to work on laws to address litigation for personal
injury because unfortunately these activities can break bones. A
screwed up society has made skating, biking and pick-up basketball
legally unappealing.

Mass transit is important for main street. Have a plan where companies

gain when they subsidize or pay for bus lines that service their
street so their employees use the bus to get to work. Encourage
companies to work with public transit to make it worthwhile to involve
public transit to transport employees.

Public works, that help Americans change the way they eat, would be

healthy. Greenhouses built on the roofs of government buildings. Grow
tomatoes, lettuce, cucumbers and strawberries. Use pubic lands for
urban farms. This was done in the thirties.

There is a real loss of sense of government. The big financial

companies can bully the government because government isn’t strong
enough to enforce laws like anti-trust. Government has spent the
people’s money bailing out failed companies not hard working people
who may become unemployed or lose their house. Government, at 30,000
feet, says there is no inflation but when you live on the ground, the
cost of surviving has increased while income has declined. The future
is bleak because of the national debt and unemployment. You talk as if
unemployment is some kind of economic term, ever think that in three
years you could be unemployed?

September 16, 2009

How’s my driving?
The “too big to fail problem” is common to the banking system, Freddy
and Fannie Mae and the single payer health care discussion. I think
those who wrote the anti-trust laws tried to address this issue. The
Federal Reserve has regional banks. Canada has six major banks. ATT's breakup
was less successful but don’t know why. Maybe some wisdom can be
gleaned from the principles of anti-trust so their wouldn’t be a
single payer but a group of regional not for profit health care
payers. The whole world knows Goldman Sachs, Bank of America and AIG
are too big. Doesn’t anti-trust apply?

July 18, 2009

President Obama has repeatedly said that we will get out of Iraq with
more care than we got into Iraq. I suggest he must speak to Geithner
about showing more care in spending the people's credit than his
public contempt when he admits he has no exit strategy for the bailout
commitments.

March 1, 2009

I see the banking crisis as a repeat of the Enron affair.
G. W. Bush K. Lay
B. Obama J. Skilling
T. Geithner A. Fastow
Geithner, the Wall St wiz kid, has been asked to build a house of
cards to cover up the banks' collapsed house of cards.
This doesn't work. Japans' banks' books were cooked, they never
addressed it and after ten years they still haven't dug themselves out
because their house of cards cancels the effectiveness of fiscal or
monetary policy. There is no exit strategy to recover the government's
infusion.
Geithner has pressed on the gas pedal (gas = people’s money) with a
heavy foot, oblivious of the amount of gas in the tank (the national
debt). He has not fixed the engine (securitized mortgages in the
banks) so we use more gas than we need to and we risk to have another
breakdown. The cars’ owners took out insurance from AIG for engine
troubles, and Geithner paid AIG to payoff the insurance policies
without an engine change. Geithner will use the people’s money to pay
the owners to fix the engine.

Geithner, who facilitated cash advances to Goldman Sachs when bailing

out AIG before the Credit Default Swaps were even settled under TARP.
He never questioned that the CDS should be settled at full value
rather than at a discount. It is suspicious since Goldman Sachs was
your leading campaign contributor. Only you and Geithner know.

The underlying instruments were mortgages on homes of human beings.

The people in expensive suits are all doing fine, the economy is going
in the “right direction”. Hey the blue jean folk think housing is
going in the “WRONG DIRECTION” and your man Geithner helps the bad
guys more than the deserving.

Some consider housing as the backbone of the American economy. The

mortgage modification program has provided 17 revised mortgages. Reset
mortgages will continue to trigger for a year. The number of homes
whose mortgage exceeds market value is unsustainably high.
Unemployment contributes to more foreclosures. The administration has
only provided band-aid fixes. They have never defined the problem and
this makes it difficult to arrive at a solution.

Let me remind you of the greatest one-liner on the failure of

management “Heck of a job, Brownie.”

PS


You promised Guantanamo would be closed in one year, it wasn’t.

You promised to cut waste in Government, you haven’t.
You promised to introduce immigration reform by your first year in
Office, you didn’t.
In February 2009, you announced that Geithner had a plan to resolve
the financial crisis. He never addressed the securitized mortgages and
resolution of housing valuation is not in sight nor a priority of your
administration.
A clearly legal failure is providing KSM a fair trial. I don’t
understand news reports suggesting that the White House is deciding
the forum for KSM’s trial. The mere suggesting of meddling and delay
is justice denied.

Sunday, July 25, 2010

Seemingly minor annoyances outweigh monumental accomplishments

Much can be made of the successful passage of the stimulus package,
the healthcare bill and the financial reform bill. It is the folly of
human nature to let seemingly minor annoyances outweigh such
monumental accomplishments.

Good government means good management. The Department of Agriculture

fails to deal honestly with the facts. It discharged an employee
without sufficient facts. It fails dairy farmers in the face of clear
facts (The congressional district in New York state is mostly
Republican dairy farmers who elected a Democrat out of desperation.).
The facts show that unnecessary subsidies to corn farmers lowers the
cost of sweetened drinks compared the rising cost of milk. The facts
show that the plight of hog farmers is unfavorable. While your Chief
of Staff doesn’t care, your Secretary of Agriculture should.

Good management means accountability of the Secretary of the Treasury.

The 2008 recession was blamed on securitized mortgages. Tarp was
passed to address the losses resulting from lowered housing values.
The Secretary of the Treasury used bait and switch and applied Tarp
funds to many other purposes but less than 5% to the intended purpose.
The housing market has yet to recover yet so much money was budgeted
for it.

Of all places where honest dealing of facts is important is in the

Department of Justice. The failure of the prosecution to present a
case to the courts in the Blackwater affair means that society never
gets to see the facts. The government has detained and tortured
people at Guantanamo. The government promised to close the chapter of
American history but not fails to keep its promise. The failure to do
the right thing in face of the known facts is a failure of management.

It is the folly of human nature to let seemingly minor annoyances

outweigh such monumental accomplishments.

I told you so.

Sunday, June 6, 2010

Do what has to get done

There is inattentiveness to the distinction between concrete targets and abstract targets. Concrete targets are closing Guantanamo, fixing toxic assets at Wall Street banks and ending the Gulf oil mess. Abstract targets are implementing health-care, immigration legislation and eliminating waste in government.

The major distinction is that it takes different people to achieve concrete targets than abstract targets. You have surrounded yourself with people like you, policy wonks, masters of abstract policy. That’s why you need your mother-in-law in your domestic life. She understands what it takes to accomplish concrete targets. You don’t.

Geithner has not yet addressed the devalued securitized mortgages booked at the major banks. Because you know nothing about accounting, you don’t understand that the banks made provisions for the devaluation, which they booked but never addressed the book value of the securitized mortgages. This was the downfall of the banks but Geithner never cleaned it up. He overpaid the banks on their claims for credit default swaps which digs the national debt deeper yet never used TARP for it’s intended purpose. To make you eat your own words - Geithner didn’t think through the consequences of his actions. You said this kind of conduct angers you. I hope you are empathetic to my anger. This problem has not gone away, could come back and contributes to the slow recovery of the housing market. This is not policy it is basic accounting, a concrete subject.

The closing of Guantanamo is fixed goal, there are no excuses. That it festers reflects weak, ineffective management.

Ending the Gulf oil mess is a fixed goal, it must not fester.

The bottom line is that real men do what has to get done. Failures are people like G.W.Bush and you, overwhelmed and helpless. Bush the “decider”, Obama the “guy in charge”.

I told you so.